I am a recent PhD graduate, with research interests in health economics and applied econometrics. Starting in the fall of 2023, I will be an NBER postdoctoral research associate, working from the Center for Business and Public Policy (CBPP) at Gies College of Business, University of Illinois.

Click here for my CV, and here for my research statement.

Contact Information


Phone: 510-520-9675


PhD in Economics, 2023

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

BA in Economics, Applied Mathematics, and Statistics, 2016

University of California, Berkeley

Working Papers

This paper studies consumers' demand for quality in the nursing home market, where information frictions are a source of concern. Using administrative data on the universe of nursing home residents, I estimate quality of nursing homes in California, and use these estimates as inputs into a structural demand model. I find substantial variation in nursing home quality: one standard deviation higher quality is associated with 2 percent lower risk-adjusted 90-day mortality rate. Yet, despite the high stakes for residents, average demand for quality is very low, even after accounting for unobserved supply-side constraints arising from selective admissions practices by nursing homes. Patterns of demand heterogeneity highlight information frictions as a major reason for this low demand: residents who were younger, highly educated, free from dementia, and who made their choices after the introduction of the star rating system were more responsive to quality. Counterfactual simulations based on estimates of the structural demand model and a competing risks model suggest that eliminating information frictions can reduce deaths by at least 8 to 28 percent, and potentially even more if supply side responses are considered.

In regression discontinuity and regression kink designs with multiple running variables (respectively, MRD and MRK), units are assigned different treatments based on whether their values on several observed running variables exceed known thresholds. In such designs, applied work commonly analyzes each running variable separately: for example, when financial aid eligibility depends on GPA and family income, researchers separately consider the sample of students with low enough family income to estimate the effect at the GPA threshold, and the sample of students with high enough GPA to estimate the effect at the income threshold. In this paper, I propose a new estimator for MRD and MRK designs using thin plate splines that improves upon the applied practice in two ways. First, the estimator provides efficiency gains by using the entire sample, and second, it may be used to estimate the conditional average treatment effect at every point on the boundary separating treated and untreated units. I show consistency of my estimator and construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals (CIs), before presenting simulations results showing that the estimator and its CIs perform well in finite samples. Finally, I demonstrate the performance of my estimator with two empirical applications: Londoño-Vélez, Rodríguez, and Sánchez (2020) on the effect of financial aid on college enrollment, and Keele and Titiunik (2015) on the effect of political ads on election turnout. R code for estimation and inference will soon be available.

Selection on Unobservables in Discrete Choice Models

Selection on unobservables is an important concern for causal inference in observational studies, and accordingly, previous papers have developed methods for sensitivity analysis for OLS, binary choice models, instrumental variables, and movers designs. In this paper, I develop methods for sensitivity analysis for a setting that has not been previously studied — discrete choice models. In particular, I derive bounds for the omitted variables bias under an assumption about how much the consumer values the omitted variable(s) relative to the included control variables, and about the relationship between the omitted variable and the variable of interest. I provide theoretical results for my bounding procedure, and demonstrate its performance in simulations. Finally, I show in several empirical applications that my procedure produces economically meaningful bounds.

Research in Progress

Racial Segregation and Choice Disparities Across Nursing Homes: Does the Distinction Matter for Policy?

Minority residents are disproportionately concentrated in low-quality nursing homes, and similar patterns of segregation and choice disparities are also present in other settings, such as school and neighborhood choice. However, while there is a link between segregation and disparities, policymakers may care about these issues for distinct reasons, and it is unclear whether policies that reduce racial segregation and disparities are one and the same. In this project, I take advantage of an administrative data set on the universe of nursing home residents to study several forces driving racial segregation and disparities in nursing home choice. Event study results show that a positive shock to the share of minority admissions in a nursing home results in a persistent increase in future share of minority admissions, consistent with in-group preferences. In addition, minority residents tend to live further away from high-quality nursing homes than white residents, and nursing homes are less likely to admit minority residents when capacity is strained. Next, to assess the relative contributions of these different forces towards racial segregation and choice disparities, I estimate a structural model that incorporates these factors and conduct counterfactual simulations. The simulations show that information interventions targeted at minorities may reduce choice disparities but are less effective at eliminating racial segregation across nursing homes, and vice versa if we only eliminate in-group preferences or discriminatory admissions practices.

Challenges in Measuring Mental Health Trends

Public awareness of mental health issues has grown in recent years, and there is a common perception that mental health in the population is worsening, concerns that are supported by descriptive evidence. However, changes in public attitudes towards mental health make the interpretation of these trends challenging: low response rates to mental health surveys make their results sensitive to changes in sample selection bias, and even diagnosis rates in comprehensive data sets such as the Medicare data are a function of individuals' willingness to seek professional help. In this paper, I address these measurement issues using a comprehensive data set on all nursing home residents, so it does not suffer from sample selection bias. Similar to Medicare data, it contains information on whether each resident was diagnosed with depression in the recent past, but in addition, it contains a rich set of psychosocial measures, which provides us with a detailed picture of the resident's underlying mental health. I find that while depression diagnoses at admission increased from 19 to 24 percent for residents admitted to a nursing home in California between 2000 and 2010, underlying mental health of these residents (based on observed psychosocial behavior as well as machine-learning predictions using hundreds of covariates) was roughly constant over the same period. These results illustrate the perils of inferring mental health trends from survey evidence or diagnosis trends alone. 

Selective Admissions and Discharges by Nursing Homes

Previous research has shown that as a consequence of capacity constraints, nursing homes selectively choose which types of residents to admit (Gandhi, 2019; Cheng, 2022), and when to discharge residents (Hackmann, Pohl, and Ziebarth, 2020). I provide a microfoundation for a structural model where arrivals of different types of potential residents and the evolution of “discharge readiness” of existing residents follow certain stochastic processes, and nursing homes choose optimal optimal admission and discharge policies that maximize expected present discounted value of future profits. The solution to this problem yields testable implications, and shed light on identification of the structural model – intuitively, nursing homes’ admission and discharge policies are identified by differences in the characteristics of residents they admit and discharge during times of high and low occupancy. I estimate the model using an extension of the Gibbs sampler in Agarwal and Somaini (2022) and Cheng (2022), with data augmentation on residents’ indirect utility and latent variables that determine nursing homes’ admission decisions for potential residents and discharge decisions for existing residents.

Past Work

Cigarette Consumption and Tax Salience
This paper studies how cigarette consumption responds over time to changes in tax rates. Using a panel of state data, I estimate that the cumulative effect of an excise tax rise on consumption is larger than the cumulative effect of an increase in sales tax, in line with a theory of tax salience. In addition, I find that consumption falls in advance of an excise tax hike, whereas it only falls in the year after a sales tax increase. The pattern of consumption response to sales taxes is also consistent with consumer learning over time.

The issue of fake news has been hotly debated in recent years, with some commentators claiming that it played a role in US presidential elections and the Brexit vote. Despite these claims, there has been limited evidence to date linking fake news directly to voting behavior. In this project, I seek to provide credible evidence on this question by using big college football games as an instrument for fake news consumption. I find that search volumes for pro-Trump fake news terms were lower in counties close to college football teams that played a big game shortly before the election, and also that these counties were less likely to vote for Trump. The magnitude of these estimates suggest that a one-standard deviation increase in search volume for pro-Trump fake news terms increased Trump’s vote share by about 4.5 percent. Finally, I do not find evidence that fake news affected overall turnout rates, or that fake news resulted in down-ballot effects.